Open Letter to California''s Governor by Chris Trayhorn, Publisher of mThink Blue Book, March 11, 2004 Dear Gov. Schwarzenegger: As academics and former government officials with a broad understanding of energy and regulatory issues, we followed with interest your discussion of these concerns during your campaign. We would like to take this opportunity to share some thoughts to help your new administration address California’s energy future. We therefore offer this open letter for your consideration. By way of background, we were among a larger group of industry experts who authored two manifestos on the California electricity crisis. The first, written at the height of the crisis in January 2001, spelled out timely, workable remedies that were largely ignored by those in authority, to California’s detriment. The second, drafted two years later, suggested reforms to move ahead from the aftermath of the crisis in a positive manner. We draw from each of these, and from intervening developments, in framing our advice to you. We also note that our suggestions are consistent with many of the specific recommendations that were offered in your energy policy agenda during the campaign. Here are the energy policy priorities we recommend: Complete the Recovery From a short-term supply adequacy perspective, the crisis has been over for some time. As a longer-term institutional and financial matter, this is not the case, and significant challenges persist. As of this writing, the state Public Utilities Commission (PUC) has approved a settlement in the PG&E bankruptcy that would repay creditors and re-establish a viable utility under California jurisdiction. Southern California Edison, operating under an approved recovery settlement, is laboring to become fully credit-worthy as its finances gradually improve. The high-cost, long-term electricity contracts (signed by the state against our advice at the height of the crisis) have been alleviated slightly by renegotiation and slightly more by mandated refunds. However, the contracts are still expensive, and California advocates continue to press federal authorities for further relief. In short, the financial fallout has persisted long past the turmoil that created it. This fallout has had its own consequences, particularly in impeding the ability of major utilities and independent power generators to invest in California. Litigation and financial uncertainty discourages investment in our state. A stable climate is a necessary base for the new policies and initiatives that can take us forward from here. Therefore, completing the recovery from the crisis should be the first, necessary energy policy objective for your administration. This includes the successful implementation of the two major utility recovery plans, along with a recognition that the outstanding claims and litigation against power producers should be settled soon, once and for all (realistic terms are inconsistent with the large sums some advocates have advanced). The benefits of just about any other policy initiative can occur only when California’s energy markets are again made attractive to investors. Rationalize State Agencies A related priority that stems in part from restructuring and the crisis (but also has earlier roots) is the need to rationalize the state’s energy bureaucracy, which has become fragmented, complex, and duplicative. Beyond questions of cost and effectiveness, the current structure contributes to a harmful ambiguity of policy that augments the risk associated with investing in California’s energy infrastructure. At present, California has the PUC, the California Energy Commission, the Oversight Board, the Independent System Operator, the California Power Authority, and all the related agencies and boards that can affect all energy infrastructure decision-making (such as Cal EPA). It is not clear, for example, which agency or agencies have the authority over the approval of new electricity transmission lines. In theory, the ISO determines when new lines are needed, after which the PUC determines proper routes for them, before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission sets rates for their use. But both the PUC and the ISO believe they are in charge of what new lines are needed and have demonstrated their ability to disagree on specific projects. Analogous turf wars and policy conflicts have played out between California energy agencies for decades, even before recent additions led to the roster of departments we have now. It is probably time for some agencies to be eliminated or consolidated. The governor’s office itself can play a pivotal role in coordinating energy projects if it so chooses, and such a role could be an important facilitator in getting things done within the state bureaucracy. Appointments Are Critical The quality of regulatory oversight, and those who conduct it, can make or break successful energy policy. Good regulatory policy starts with good appointees who understand the importance of balanced regulatory outcomes that send the right signals, and who are willing to challenge a highly regulatory status quo, with continuing support from the governor and his staff. California has more than enough rules, mandates, and threats. What’s needed is some aggressive trimming of the regulatory underbrush to eliminate costly and problematic requirements that are no longer needed or wanted. Appointments to positions such as PUC commissioner are critical and require a maturity of judgment and perspective that is not always easy to find in prospective appointees. These selections merit the full attention and care of the governor and his senior staff. Stand With Markets For the production of energy, the market needs to win the great debate against central planning. Contrary to some popular accounts, the problems of the crisis did not stem from reliance on markets but from a half-hearted and poorly executed market process. The production of electricity is not a monopoly function. There is no good reason why a particular firm (or the state, in its place) needs to own all power plants. Costs will be lower and service more effective and innovative if multiple producers compete to produce the electricity California needs. The existence of wholesale electricity markets is also an irreversible fact that is backed by many years of federal regulatory policy. Wholesale electricity markets are here to stay regardless of California’s preferences. Any sensible policy approach to electricity procurement is compatible with competition for the production of electricity. Efforts to turn back the clock to deny a role for market alternatives will only prove costly and counterproductive to the people of California. Seek Realistic Pricing Most customers still pay for their electricity on a simple, cents-per-kilowatt-hour basis through prices that are uniform during all times of day or all seasons of the year. However, the cost and value of electricity varies widely over the time of day and season. Electricity on a hot summer afternoon is a completely different commodity than electricity at midnight in winter. Yet both are priced the same. It is as if all restaurants were required to charge a uniform price per pound for all food they serve, no matter what its quality or cost. There is an urgent need to move toward pricing electricity more closely with its unique economic characteristics. Encouraging realistic pricing through use of time-of-use meters and options for term pricing for utility service are logical steps. Beyond using our resources more efficiently and effectively, such pricing will also give consumers new opportunities (e.g., to control their bills by using power at less costly times or to save money through a longer-term buying commitment). While it will take some time and investment to create these opportunities, California should take advantage of new metering technologies to let customers distinguish gourmet electricity usage from its fast-food equivalent. Further, the lack of realistic pricing can create unacceptable market risks for utilities and suppliers in a direct-access environment, as we saw all too regrettably in the electricity crisis. Therefore, realistic electricity pricing will also permit California to consider potentially beneficial market options, such as a core/noncore division of electricity consumers to again open up direct access to competitive wholesale supplies for large customers. Alternatives Are Good, But … Alternative energy sources have lately received new press coverage, spurred in part by your campaign statements favoring such technology. California has also embarked on an alternative fuels commitment for utility generation that will ultimately require a fifth of the state’s electricity to be so generated. Here, we need to sound a cautionary note. Alternative technologies have an inherent appeal, and can appear to promise much. Some new technologies succeed terrifically. But others never deliver on their promise, especially to become affordable and economically viable as a large-scale source of energy. The problem is public policy favoring alternatives inevitably puts customers and/or taxpayers at risk when the results fall short of the promise. If the technology fails (or even falls short of the state of the art), then rates go up and taxes are higher. Therefore, while we share everyone’s enthusiasm for innovative technologies, we observe that the demand for such breakthroughs calls forth its own supply of promoters seeking subsidy or governmental favor, just as it always has. To protect the interests of the public will often require you, or your appointees, to say no. Don’t Forget Natural Gas Natural gas remains a critical and attractive fuel, and one upon which California has become highly dependent. The price and availability of natural gas were critical concerns at key points during the crisis. The environmental advantages of natural gas over most other fuels remain important today, even as other energy sources are sought through alternative technologies. Although the price spikes of the crisis have passed, concerns about supply constraints and cost volatility are genuine. Market prices have not returned to the relatively benign levels that prevailed for years before the crisis. California will always have to import most of the gas needed to sustain current consumption levels. It is time again to pay attention to this infrastructure, and we encourage your administration to lead in promoting new resource development, including facilities needed for California to take advantage of liquefied natural gas. In Closing Gov. Schwarzenegger, you have an opportunity to move California past the aftermath of the crisis and on to a new and productive course of energy policy. We wish you well in that critical effort. We are delighted to have had this opportunity to share our thoughts and recommendations with you on these critically important issues. We encourage you or your staff to contact us for further specifics of these proposals or any other assistance we might be able to offer to your new administration. Filed under: White Papers Tagged under: Utilities About the Author Chris Trayhorn, Publisher of mThink Blue Book Chris Trayhorn is the Chairman of the Performance Marketing Industry Blue Ribbon Panel and the CEO of mThink.com, a leading online and content marketing agency. He has founded four successful marketing companies in London and San Francisco in the last 15 years, and is currently the founder and publisher of Revenue+Performance magazine, the magazine of the performance marketing industry since 2002.