Ringing IN and Hanging UP

In the old days, a telephone came in two designs and had one ring. With the rise in cell phones, the styles are endless and so are the types of rings you can make the phone chime. There are master tones, ringback tones, polytones, monotones and they all have a price. Users can download them over the Internet and program a ring to sound only when mom or that special someone calls. Users can also send a ring out to someone to let them know who is calling. But they aren’t cheap – as much as three times the cost of one hit single from iTunes. But that hasn’t stopped people from buying the tones in droves.

The music industry loves that users will pay a premium for the 30-second melodies and still come back for more. What the industry doesn’t like is the Florida Attorney General office, which has it in for certain ringtone sellers over the Internet. Whether or not Florida officials can make a civil case for deceptive practices, the damage is done. When sites such as Blinko.com, Jamster.com and DirtyHippo.com are accused of bait-and-switch tactics by offering supposedly free ringtones that are not free, every ringtone seller over the Internet takes notice, as do consumers.

Ringtone affiliates, sites that sell ringtones and networks with ringtone sellers in their lineup are all concerned about the black eye a few misbehavers are leaving on a growing sector of the digital music revolution.

“No reason for one very bad apple to ruin it for everyone,” Steve Richter, president and general counsel for Media Breakaway, says. Media Breakaway owns CPA Empire, a network that was at the center of a ringtone firestorm a few months ago when it was discovered that an affiliate’s website offered free ringtones when, in fact, they were not free (the free tones only came with a paid subscription). CPA Empire noted that within an hour of identifying the affiliate’s website, it was pulled down. “We had no idea that this was running,” says Richter. “We took a pretty severe action against this affiliate. Any of our affiliates that are discovered to violate our terms and conditions, we take action immediately.”

Tarnished Reputation?

Matter closed. Or so it would seem until another online network is targeted. The coverage this issue has received sheds light on the power a few individuals have on the whole reputation of a budding digital music phenomenon and how hard it will be to police the vast reaches of cyberspace.

“It’s a highly competitive market and a burgeoning industry,” says David Haverly, senior executive, Mobile Vertical, at MIVA. “It’s very hard to break through.” He says that, “technically there are no free ringtones. But websites must be clear that to get the free ringtones you must buy a few; say 10 or more.”

That is what caught the attention of the Florida authorities. The alleged bait-and-switch tactics – when a seller never intends to sell consumers the advertised thing so that it can sell them a more expensive other thing – are pretty much illegal in most states. In the case of Florida, its civil investigation means that the upshot will probably not lead to criminal charges for the companies under the microscope, but can lead to accusations of fraud, which means if someone wants to sue the companies, they could have a pretty good case.

“The content provider industry has guidelines to not blur what they are getting,” says Haverly. “Sometimes, in fine print you see that if you sign up, you get the free ones.

Our goal is to give a quality experience. We have to say when an affiliate is not clear.” With a ringtone affiliate reaping as much as $15 for every new customer, the incentive is there to cut corners.

If more investigations in other states are opened, the reputation of all of digital music sales over the Internet could take a beating at a time when the ringtone market is at an all-time-high. Revenues for ringtones have more than doubled year-over- year, says JupiterResearch. Ringtones brought in about $420 million in 2006 and JupiterResearch predicts the pot will grow to $724 million by 2009. In 2005, more than 24 million people downloaded ringtones to their cell phones; that’s about 13 percent of cell phone users, according to eMarketer. IDC predicts that more than 54 million people will download a ringtone by the end of this year.

An Alternative for Record Companies

For the record companies, this is good news in the wake of its falling sales of music CDs since 2000. When Nielsen’s SoundScan launched the tracking of mastertone sales in December of 2006 (mastertones are portions of the original recording, whereas polytones are just the melody played by usually a keyboard. SoundScan has tracked polytones since 2004.), the numbers surpassed the sales of single-track songs, and in many cases at three times the price. When the first polytones numbers arrived in 2004, Geoff Mayfield, director of charts at Billboard, has said he was “floored.” The ARC Group in London has predicted that global sales of ringtones will surpass $5.2 billion in 2008 – that’s more than 10 percent of all digital music sales. Internationally, the numbers are equally big. The Wireless World Forum estimates there will be 28 million Indians under the age of 24 with cell phones by the end of 2007, and nearly 15 million in the U.K. That spending on ringtones comes to $23 million by the end of this year.

Also, with artists and their labels pulling in less from pure CD sales, other means have to be explored – such as ringtones. David Bowie was one of the first to release unique music to subscribers over his Bowie.net network. Some artists are dipping their toes into ringtone-only releases. Snoop Dog releases ringtones on his website, to name just one artist. “[CD] sales are so down and so off that, as a manager, I look at a CD as part of the marketing of an artist, more than as an income stream,” artist manager Jeff Rabhan recently told The Wall Street Journal.

Yet some vocal affiliates continue to be wary of the return ringtones offer. One forum poster stated that “I really don’t trust most of the merchants that offer ringtones; their websites have that spyware feel.” He also stated that he had “recently checked my stats and I had a measly amount, which was less than the meager $10 I made last year.” Other voices on the Internet second that sentiment. “Making money with ringtones has never worked for me,” a forum entry states.

“I’ve tried the high-paying offers; I tried the low-paying offers. I bought ads with PPC through AdWords and AdBrite and still lost money.”

In the short term, affiliates say, the term “free” always gets a higher place in a search engine result and that alone will make it hard to rid the ringtone universe of the “few bad apples.” One affiliate states that “this is actually good for some of the little ringtone affiliate players out there like myself. I always hated complying with the [terms of service] by removing the terms ‘free, no cost,’ etc., from an ad when my competition clearly wasn’t following suit. Makes it a little harder to compete and slims the margins up for a lot of markets.” Another says “all these guys are at the top of search results because their ads get much higher [clickthrough rates] than publishers that are doing the right thing and are staying away from using the word ‘free.'”

Leads from ringtones are also at an all-time high, offering no incentive to “fly by the rules.” Some affiliates in 2006 generated as many as 1 million clicks and 100,000 leads through ringtone keywords. The payout per lead has fluctuated anywhere between $5 and $15 per lead.

The Search Effect

The continued battle for high-ranking ringtone search results has had an impact. Antivirus maker McAfee rates the keywords “ringtone” and “free ringtone” in the top 10 of the most dangerous search terms to use, just after “free screensaver (per chart pg. 62)” and “Kazaa.” Clicking through to sites resulting from these searches is more likely to send the user to questionable sites or install adware or spyware, McAfee states. One of the most popular “scams” is a “free” tone site that checks a terms of service box for you when you enter your phone number. The terms of service state somewhere that you agree to a subscription price to receive the free tones. When users try to uncheck the box, they can’t.

Some ringtone affiliates have said that when they use Yahoo Search Marketing, the titles and descriptions in the ad are sometimes changed to what Yahoo Search Marketing perceives is still an accurate description. The affiliate may bid on the term “free realtone” but submit copy that leaves the “free” out. Then Yahoo Search Marketing will reinsert the “free” since that was in the keywords they bid on. The affiliate doesn’t see the change until it gets served up. In some of these cases, the affiliate will immediately cancel the campaign when they see the mistake. Sometimes, not.

Other questionable techniques include using a ringtone company’s images and logos to build a unique landing page that goes to a completely different destination when consumers go to sign up. Some advertise MP3 ringtones that are, in fact, lesser monotone files.

Ron Czerny, CEO of PlayPhone, has had experiences with bad ringtone affiliates on his network. “We are very active,” he says. “We are constantly monitoring our affiliates. We take action in 24 hours if we find bad apples and we will report them to the carriers.” The cell phone carrier may pull their short code, he says, which means that the connection between the affiliate’s ringtone servers and the customer will be cut off. “This kind of thing happens in all entertainment areas,” says Czerny.

Government Intervention

It happens with piracy in movies and music, he says, adding that the slowdown in ringtone sales in Europe in 2005 and 2006 was because of “bad customer experiences” with fraudulent ringtone sellers. What was done in a lot of European countries was the carriers imposed regulations that sellers were required to meet before they could sell ringtones. Czerny says the market over there has bounced back.

“[Regulation] is not going to happen in the U.S.,” he says, “because companies like ours are taking that right action,” adding that the bigger companies have a stake in making it work. He says that consolidation is playing a role in weeding out the troublemakers. “We will see consolidation in the top 10 businesses,” he says. “A lot of small ringtone companies are using the backbone of larger ringtone companies and are just simply giving up.” He says the larger market will be in China. Brazil and Mexico have proven they have many willing to pay for tones. Innovations, he says, will come in the way people share the ringtones and not in the tones themselves.

As with the online lead generation industry, the perception and the practice need to mirror each other. The top online lead generation firms formed an association last year to help monitor their industry and set guidelines. Currently, ringtone sellers want to keep the market unregulated. “You must have communication with the network,” says MIVA’s Haverly. “We schedule weekly calls with some of the affiliates,” so that the lines of communication are always open. He adds that if a drugstore runs a two-for-one ad for aspirin but you have to pay full price if you want Excedrin, is it a misleading ad? Does the fact that it might be perceived as fraud warrant the government or the cell phone carriers to step in? Who is going to make the judgment call?

PlayPhone’s Czerny says the government will not step in. “It will not come to that.” Richard Jesty, an analyst at ARC Group, states that ringtone sales will also see a slowdown in the U.S., but not because of fraud. “Over time, the novelty will wear off, but not yet.”

Music Needs Tuning

The complex space needs some harmony before online marketers start to sing.

Imagine you’re a publisher trying to parlay your expertise and passion for vacuum cleaners into a performance- based business. You are shocked to learn that sellers don’t compete on price, that you aren’t allowed to see what is in the manufacturers’ catalogs and that if you want to sell in volume, there’s only one partner.

Although this scenario seems somewhat over the top, it approximates what publishers looking to participate in the market for digital music downloads and subscription services now face. While online music sales are rapidly rising, the companies with distribution rights will have to revamp the way music is marketed to reach its revenue potential.

The sales of digital tracks rose by more than 150 percent from 2004 to 2005 (to 353 million songs), according to Nielsen SoundScan. That is a growth rate that any industry would be proud to have. Global revenue to the record companies from digital music sales nearly tripled, from $400 million to $1.1 billion in 2005, according to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI).

Great news, right? Almost. From a glass-is-half-empty perspective, however, the total sales of recorded music (both physical and digital) fell by 3 percent last year, or not in the direction that the folks at Sony BMG, EMI or the other major labels want things to go.

Apple at the Core

Most of the growth in music download sales can be attributed to Apple’s iPod player and iTunes store. The two most visited online music sites for the final week of January 2006 according to Nielsen//NetRatings NetView, were Apple’s iTunes store, and AOL Music, which also sells iTunes. Depending on which analyst you ask, Apple’s share of music download sales is between 75 and 90 percent. “If you want to be successful [selling downloads], you have to partner with Apple,” says Tim Bajarin, president of analyst firm Creative Strategies.

iTunes may be delivering sizable revenue for Apple and the major music labels, but publishers aren’t getting much of the action. Apple, which has sold more than 1 billion tracks via iTunes, pays its affiliates a 5 percent commission on the sales of its $0.99 tracks. The company does not have a subscription service.

Bajarin says the status quo is likely to continue in music downloads for the foreseeable future. “I don’t see anyone touching [Apple],” says Bajarin, adding that the company has created a “digital ecosystem to acquire, manage and distribute digital content” to iPods that is without competition.

Apple declined to be interviewed for this article.

AOL Music offers iTunes downloads and a subscription service (AOL Music Now) that is billed separately, according to Erik Flannigan, vice president and general manager of AOL Music, Movies and Television.

The confusing structure has AOL Music (music.aol.com) sending traffic to the iTunes store for download purchases, while AOL Music Now (aol.musicnow.com), which will officially launch this summer, is the home of its $9.95-per-month subscription service. AOL Music Now also sells Windows Media format downloads.

The company hopes to someday have a single service. “We believe in both models, and would love to see them both together,” Flannigan says. He is hopeful that Apple will someday enable subscription service listeners to enjoy music on their iPods.

Affiliates aren’t jumping at the opportunity to earn a nickel per sale for downloads when they are accustomed to earning just as much from mere clicks in other industries. Lisa Riolo, senior vice president of business development at Commission Junction, says few affiliates have contacted the company looking to partner with download sites. “We haven’t heard a lot of demand from affiliates for downloads,” she says.

Subscription services, which can pay between $5 and $15 commissions when a consumer signs up for a trial, can be much more lucrative for publishers, Riolo says. Commission Junction manages the affiliate programs for subscription-based RealNetworks, Yahoo and eMusic, which all offer subscriptions and downloads.

Subscription service revenues may not be growing as fast as music download sites, but the number of consumers paying a few dollars per month to listen to catalogs online almost doubled, from 1.5 million to 2.8 million globally in 2005, according to the IFPI.

Like Apple, RealNetworks sells tracks for $0.99 each, but the company does not offer affiliate incentives on downloads, instead paying commissions for trial subscriptions, according to Rachel Lazar, the director of consumer marketing for RealNetworks.

Focusing on subscriptions provides a better opportunity for publishers to generate revenue than making a few cents per download, Lazar says. RealNetworks recently raised its bounty for trial subscriptions secured by a credit card, from $12 to $15. “It would take a huge volume to make up the money they could do with subscriptions,” she says.

Although she would not disclose how many affiliates RealNetworks has, Lazar says that during a few recent quarters the number of affiliates doubled.

Subscription services have been hampered by a lack of consumer understanding about how they work and the lack of a solution for mobile users. Subscription services allow access to a catalog of music through channels or stations that focus on genres. If consumers want to access music after a subscription is terminated, they must purchase tracks separately.

“There is a lot of education that is yet to be done when it comes to subscription music services,” and publishers could aid in clarifying that, RealNetworks’ Lazar says. Publishers who are involved in marketing other media, such as movies or audio books, are a good match for promoting music, according to Lazar.

Creative Strategies’ Bajarin says consumers aren’t accustomed to paying to listen to music and are more comfortable with owning music. “When you quit [RealNetworks Rhapsody service], your music is gone,” he says.

“The problem with the subscription model is portability,” music industry consultant Barry Sosnick, president of Earful.info, says. Consumers have a “strong desire to have ownership when it comes to music,” so having access to songs end with a subscription is a “critical shortcoming,” he says.

However, music publishers including Napster and AOL Music have addressed this concern with higher fee services that allow consumers to listen on portable devices during the time that they are subscribers.

Publishers also have an opportunity to help distinguish competing music subscription services. While services like Rhapsody, EMusic and Napster all claim to have catalogs of more than 1.5 million tracks, identifying which if any service has a majority of an individual’s favorite artists can be a challenge. For example, Rhapsody has an extensive collection of tracks from Indie singer-songwriter Bob Mould, but no albums from classic rock stalwart Bob Seger.

The subscription services only permit consumers to search their catalogs after they have subscribed, but affiliates are now getting tools to differentiate the subscription services. Services such as RealNetworks and Yahoo Music are now working with affiliates to promote artists as a method of marketing their catalogs.

RealNetworks’ Lazar said the company is now allowing “select publishers” to see the data feed so that they can incorporate track information and album art on their websites. However, Lazar says affiliates cannot publish all of the data online or make it searchable.

Similarly, Yahoo Music recently made its product catalog data feed available to affiliates to “allow affiliates to link directly to individual song pages on our music pages from either a search engine or their website,” according to Eva Hung, who manages Yahoo’s affiliate programs. “We think this will significantly improve conversions …,” she says.

For example, publishers can now create collections, such as the best grunge rock tracks, to showcase the depth of Yahoo’s catalog.

Earful.info’s Sosnick says publishers can aid the purchasing process by acting as a filter, recommending artists and “separating the wheat from the chaff.” He says consumers don’t want to scroll through pages and pages of artists, but prefer to be guided. “If consumers have too many choices, they revolt.”

Subscription services are attempting to increase their reach by encouraging publishers to participate in search marketing. Both Yahoo and RealNetworks support publishers’ acquiring traffic by purchasing artists’ names or genres on search engines.

RealNetworks also encourages publishers to bid on Google for its branded terms such as Rhapsody, according to Lazar. The company works with publishers to build custom landing pages from paid search ads that showcase genres or artists, she says.

One Price Gives Fits to All

Most online music services have followed the lead of Apple (and its CEO Steve Jobs) in offering the majority of music tracks for $0.99 and albums for $9.99. The rigid pricing strategy has frustrated music executives who prefer a tiered structure, and limited the ability of publishers and marketers to differentiate the services.

The “coincidental” pricing across services also has the attention of New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and the U.S. Department of Justice, so a change in pricing strategy may occur this year.

The $0.99-per-track standard has also prompted inconsistencies in the value of albums versus individual songs. While some albums with 15 or more tracks are a bargain at $9.99, it is sometimes cheaper to buy tracks individually (as in the case of the six-track album Animals from Pink Floyd) than it is to buy the entire album.

According to the Online Publishers Association, the percentage of music downloaded as individual tracks rose from 15.4 percent in 2004 to 21.6 percent.

While music industry executives would like to raise the ceiling on tracks above $0.99 and lower the prices of other tracks, Earful.info’s Sosnick says consumers would be willing to pay $0.99 for less-in-demand tracks too.

“If a consumer is looking for a niche product, chances are they are willing to pay for it,” Sosnick says. However, variable pricing would enable publishers to promote related songs as less expensive “impulse buys,” according to Sosnick.

Publishers are also generating revenue by creating content related to digital music distribution. AOL Music is videorecording concert performances of artists including the Rolling Stones to generate advertising revenue and traffic. Social networking sites such as MySpace, while not selling music directly, have greatly increased their ad revenue by allowing music enthusiasts to create websites and playlists about their favorite artists.

Yahoo’s Hung says that music is critical to the company’s affiliate program, so the company consolidated all of the programs to simplify cross-promotion with other services including personals and instant messaging. For example, if a publisher is successful in getting a consumer to try the music subscription service, when consumers download the Yahoo Music Engine and also download Yahoo Messenger or the Yahoo Toolbar, publishers can earn additional commissions.

The next musical horizon for publishers is to promote unsigned artists, according to Commission Junction’s Riolo. User-generated videos and commentary are attracting large audiences online, and Riolo says music is a likely progression. She says affiliate programs could generate considerable revenue if they can figure out how to market music from amateurs to a mass audience.

JOHN GARTNER is a freelance writer in Portland, Ore. He is a former editor at Wired News and CMP. His articles regularly appear on Wired.com, AlterNet.org and in MIT’s TechnologyReview.com.

iPod, Therefore iTunes

Affiliates interested in offering digital music downloads should pay tribute to Apple for legitimizing an over-hyped and under performing market that was close to flaming out before it ever got off the ground.

Despite the continued existence of freely available music through peer-to-peer networks, Apple has sold more than 125 million songs through its iTunes online store since it opened in late 2002, according to the company.

Apple’s iTunes dominates the industry, representing 70 percent of all music files downloaded legally between December 2003 and July 2004, according to market researcher NPD Group. Napster, with 11 percent of the market, was the second-largest download seller, followed by MusicMatch, RealNetworks and Walmart.com.

But how long can Apple top the download chart? Analysts say Apple’s continued leadership of the non-free world of music downloads is largely tied to the success of the iPod, which is both asset and encumbrance for the Cupertino, Calif., company. According to Apple, the company sold 2 million of its industry-leading iPods during the quarter ending in September 2004.

Apple was able to grow and dominate its market because of the company’s product design skills and because consumers and the music labels felt comfortable with them, according to Mike Goodman, a senior analyst at the Yankee Group. Apple was the first digital music distributor to be fully supported by the recording industry, Goodman says.

“They were the first to have access to the (music) libraries needed to make a successful online music service,” he says. The company that offers the largest music catalog, as Apple does with more than 1 million tracks, has an advantage in attracting consumers, according to Goodman.

Apple is unique in selling both the songs and the music players, which gives the company an advantage, according to Goodman. “The iPod received the blessing of the youth as the coolest music player,” he says, adding that the iPod’s interface and ability to manipulate it with one hand distinguish it from the competition.

While other music download services try to eke out a living on the slim margins offered by selling songs for less than a buck apiece, Apple makes a hefty amount of its profit on hardware sales via the iPod, Goodman says. Apple is turning the model of selling razors to make money on razorblades on its ear because “iTunes exists to sells iPods,” according to Goodman.

“Apple will continue to lead as long as they continue to innovate with hardware,” says Tim Bajarin, president of analyst firm Creative Strategies. He says that with 92 percent of the hard disk player market, Apple has a large customer base ready to purchase music. “Because the iPod is one of the most elegant music players, people want to get out there and use it,” Bajarin says. “It’s viral.”

Orchestrating The Future

While these numbers are impressive for a market fractured by a variety of incompatible file formats and hundreds of generic portable music players, the market penetration has been small and the potential for growth enormous. Accord-ing to NPD Group, less than 1 percent of US households legally downloaded music in July of 2004.

The Yankee Group’s Goodman expects iTunes to keep humming along in the short term. Although he says the market will heat up through competition from new services developed by music seller Virgin and online portal Yahoo, “I don’t see [Apple’s dominance] changing in the next six to 12 months,” Goodman says. Because its dominant iPod portable device will not play most other file formats, Apple doesn’t have to worry about competition to iTunes today, he says.

Companies would have to either license Apple’s FairPlay digital rights management or reverse engineer it, as RealNetworks has done, to enable songs encoded in its file format to play on the iPod, Goodman says.

However, Goodman argues that iTunes may eventually have to outgrow the iPod if Apple wants to continue to grow with an expanding market. He says that only 30 percent of music downloads end up on hard disk devices today, so Apple is limiting iTunes’ potential reach.

Goodman is not convinced that tying a music service to a proprietary hardware device is the best strategy if viable iPod competitors are developed. “Over the long term, just selling to the iPod will not be successful.” Tracks can be downloaded to Macs or PCs through the iTunes Web site, but users cannot copy them to devices other than iPods.

Apple recently began to increase its hardware reach by creating more versatile iPods and agreeing to allow mobile phones to play iTunes. Apple hopes to attract a new audience with the recent introduction of the iPod Photo, which includes a color screen and can store up to 25,000 digital photos. Apple also licensed the iPod to Hewlett-Packard to sell to Windows users, and Motorola announced it would introduce handsets capable of storing and playing iTunes in mid-2005.

Network Competition

Every download seller has an affiliate program in place to try to increase the overall market by encouraging links from other Web sites. Apple launched its iTunes affiliate program in September with affiliate network LinkShare. The company provides tools that enable affiliates to directly link to single tracks and albums and will offer special promotions to encourage sales

According to Apple spokeswoman Liz Einbinder, the company pays a 5 percent commission on all sales stemming from affiliate leads. The company sends out checks 45 days after the month in which an affiliate accrues $25 in sales. Einbinder says the company does not disclose details about the number of affiliates who have signed up for the program.

Nathan Wright, who runs music Web site MonkeyCube.com, says it took about three days for Apple to approve him as an affiliate. “It was a very easy process,” he says. MonkeyCube made the cut because it does not include offensive content and has sufficient traffic with more than 800 unique visitors per day, according to Wright.

Wright says that while he did not earn any commissions through the first 60 days of being an Apple affiliate, he is happy to include links on his site to Apple products. “Apple has been a great brand and company to associate with. If I could chose any (music seller) to partner with, I’d choose Apple.

Michael Sullivan of FreshTuneage.com signed up to become an iTunes affiliate on the first day, but he says Apple wasn’t fully prepared to partner at the beginning. “They kind of stumbled out of the gate,” Sullivan says. Apple initially offered links only to the iTunes page, but set up a program for linking to individual tracks within a few days.

FreshTuneage also has links to buy albums on Amazon.com and CDBaby .com, says Sullivan. He is hopeful that readers will be attracted to iTunes because they can download tracks immediately instead of having to wait for CDs to arrive in the mail if they purchase from another of his partners. Sullivan also suggests that Mac enthusiasts such as himself might prefer to buy from iTunes instead of other services because of their passion for the brand. “There is some inherent snobbery,” he says.

So far no one has purchased any iTunes by clicking on his links, Sullivan says. He says the music reviews and news bloggers he has spoken with have not successfully converted their traffic into music download sales.

Music download competitor Buy.com pays 10 percent, a higher commission than Apple. And like Apple, Walmart.com also pays per track sold. MusicMatch, Napster and RealNetworks pay their affiliates based on their ability to locate new subscribers for their monthly fee services. RealNetworks offers incentives ranging from $2 to $11 for corralling new subscribers for its services, and MusicMatch offers bounties of $7 to $10.

The Yankee Group’s Goodman does not believe that the subscription model will be successful. “The negative backlash will intensify as consumers realize that when they end their subscription, access to their music goes away,” he says.

Goodman doesn’t expect Apple to launch subscription services. Streaming services won’t help them sell iPods since the devices do not directly connect to the Internet. “The rental model works for movies, but not for music,” according to Goodman.

The Early Innings

As the New York Yankees painfully discovered in 2004, even commanding leads can be surpassed, and Apple has a competitor that may prove as tenacious as the Boston Red Sox. Microsoft, which has its own protected music format and an unequaled bank account, has been upping the ante by developing a new mobile device platform and revamping its music service.

Microsoft recently rolled out the 10th version of its Windows Media software for playing audio and video files, and several hardware partners announced portable devices that can play them. Through MSN Music, consumers can download music videos, single tracks or albums from more than 3,000 independent labels. Microsoft updated its music service to better integrate with its Windows Media Player software that is included with all Windows PCs as well as 70 handheld devices, including PDAs and smart phones.

“There are far more devices that play Windows Media files” than iTunes, says Michael Gartenberg, vice president of research at Jupiter Research. “The challenge is for one of the [Windows hardware] vendors to come out with an iPod equivalent,” he says.

“In the marketplace now the digital distribution of protected music files is strongly determined by the device,” according to Gartenberg. “For now it’s the iPod, but it is hard to predict the future.” Digital music sales are expected to double to $270 million in 2004 and could reach $1.7 billion by 2009, according to Jupiter Research.

Gartenberg said that because portable audio players have penetrated only 5 percent of the American market, “discounting Microsoft or RealNetworks at this stage of the game would be extraordinarily foolish.” While iTunes is the leader today, “the online music offerings aren’t all that different in terms of content, selection and usage rights,” according to Gartenberg.

Microsoft has been less aggressive and forthcoming about its plans for teaming with affiliates. The company has a “preferred partner program” instead of an affiliates program. Spokeswoman Sarah Williams says the company does not provide financial information about relationships with affiliates.

Since Microsoft’s primary focus has always been selling software, the company may use its music service as yet another avenue for selling devices powered by Microsoft applications. The MSN Music service integrates links to download sellers Napster, Walmart.com and MusicMatch and CD site Amazon.com.

Microsoft has frequently let other companies compete in a nascent industry before pouncing on the opportunity, as it did with spreadsheet and word processing software. The company also has established a reputation for getting things right after the third or later generation of software, so the landscape could change, according to Goodman. “Microsoft is probably better off being out of the box late rather than early,” he says.

ITunes’ status as the download service front-runner will depend largely on the iPod’s dominance over devices manufactured by consumer electronics companies who often partner with Microsoft, so the pressure is on to continue the company’s initial success. As Goodman says, “In a market-share business, everything can turn on a dime.”

JOHN GARTNER is a freelance writer living in Philadelphia. He is a former editor at Wired News and CMP.